Pakistan Economic and Social Review - Lahore

PAKISTAN ECONOMIC and SOCIAL REVIEW

School of Economics, University of the Punjab, Lahore
ISSN (print): 1011-002X
ISSN (online): 2224-4174
Abstract

This study tries to answer the question, “has macroeconomic instability detrimental impact on gross domestic product of Pakistan over the period of 1980 to 2012?” For reviewing macroeconomic instability a comprehensive macroeconomic instability index is constructed by incorporating inflation rate, unemployment rate, trade deficit and budget deficit. Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model has been used for examining the cointegration among the variables of the models and Vector Error-Correction model is used for short-run dynamics of the models. For investigating the causal relationship among the variables of the model Granger causality test has been applied. The empirical results of the study confirm the existence of cointegration between macroeconomic instability and gross domestic product in Pakistan. The results of the study show that macroeconomic instability has deep rooted and detrimental impact on gross domestic product of Pakistan. Hence, for achieving desired level of gross domestic product, Pakistan should make macroeconomic environment stable.

Author(s):

AMJAD ALI

Assistant Professor

Department of Economics, University of the Punjab, Lahore

Pakistan

  • chanamjadali@yahoo.com

HAFEEZ UR REHMAN

Professor/Chairman

Department of Economics at the University of the Punjab, Lahore

Pakistan

Details:

Type: Articles
Volume: 53
Issue: 2
Language: English
Id: 6076927251868
Pages 285 - 316
Published December 31, 2015

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Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.