Pakistan Economic and Social Review - Lahore

PAKISTAN ECONOMIC and SOCIAL REVIEW

School of Economics, University of the Punjab, Lahore
ISSN (print): 1011-002X
ISSN (online): 2224-4174
Abstract

Recent research work has shown that inflation rate is asymmetric and it is also well known that asymmetry is a non-linear phenomenon. In order to better understand this non-linearity in inflation of Pakistan, we investigate the possible presence of Smooth Transition Autoregressive (STAR) non-linearity in inflation series. The study finds that month on month inflation series for Pakistan possesses both logistic and exponential STAR type non-linearity. Exponential Smooth transition function was proven to be more relevant on the basis of Dijk et al. (2000). Therefore, we develop ESTAR model in this paper which outperforms its linear rivals in forecasting.

Author(s):

MUHAMMAD REHMAN

Joint Director

State Bank of Pakistan, Karachi

Pakistan

  • drhrehmankhan@gmail.com

JAVED IQBAL

Joint Director

State Bank of Pakistan, Karachi

Pakistan

HAFEEZ UR REHMAN

Professor/Chairman

Department of Economics at the University of the Punjab, Lahore

Pakistan

Details:

Type: Articles
Volume: 49
Issue: 1
Language: English
Id: 60865395a975e
Pages 1 - 12
Published June 30, 2011

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Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.