Abstract
Recent research work has shown that inflation rate is asymmetric and it is also well known that asymmetry is a non-linear phenomenon. In order to better understand this non-linearity in inflation of Pakistan, we investigate the possible presence of Smooth Transition Autoregressive (STAR) non-linearity in inflation series. The study finds that month on month inflation series for Pakistan possesses both logistic and exponential STAR type non-linearity. Exponential Smooth transition function was proven to be more relevant on the basis of Dijk et al. (2000). Therefore, we develop ESTAR model in this paper which outperforms its linear rivals in forecasting.
Author(s):
MUHAMMAD REHMAN
Joint DirectorState Bank of Pakistan, Karachi
Pakistan
- drhrehmankhan@gmail.com
JAVED IQBAL
Joint DirectorState Bank of Pakistan, Karachi
Pakistan
HAFEEZ UR REHMAN
Professor/ChairmanDepartment of Economics at the University of the Punjab, Lahore
Pakistan
Details:
Type: | Articles |
Volume: | 49 |
Issue: | 1 |
Language: | English |
Id: | 60865395a975e |
Pages | 1 - 12 |
Published | June 30, 2011 |

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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.