Pakistan Economic and Social Review - Lahore

PAKISTAN ECONOMIC and SOCIAL REVIEW

School of Economics, University of the Punjab, Lahore
ISSN (print): 1011-002X
ISSN (online): 2224-4174

ECONOMIC EVALUATION OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN PAKISTAN

  • MAHR MUHAMMAD YOUSAF/
  • Zakir Hussain/
  • NISAR AHMAD/
  • June 30, 2008
Abstract

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Pakistan is one of the major external sources of funding to meet obligations of resources gap and goal achievement. FDI has played a vital role in the economic growth of Pakistan. FDI contributed significantly in the human resources development, capital formation, and organizational and managerial skills of the people in the country. Total foreign investment was $ 6.0 billion, of which FDI amounted to $ 4.16 billion in the year 2007. The present research study empirically analyzed the impact of FDI on Pakistani imports and exports through time series data. The study applied the Unit Roots test to check the stationarity of the data series used in the analysis. Cointegration technique was used to analyze the long run relationship among the variables. Error Correction Model was used for further analysis.

       The results of the import model showed that FDI positively impacted real demand for imports in the short run and in the long run. In case of one percent increase in FDI; real demand for import would increase by 0.08 percent in the short-run and 0.52 in the long run. The results of export model showed that FDI has negative relation with real exports in the short-run and positive relation in the long run. The export model estimations indicated that with one percent increase in FDI, real export decreased by –0.08 percent in the short-run and increased by 1.62 percent in the long run.

References

Afzal, M. (2004), Estimating long run trade elasticities in Pakistan: A Cointegration approach. The Pakistan Development Review, Volume 43, and No. 4.

Alfaro et al. (2006), How does Foreign Direct Investment promote economic growth? Exploring the effects of financial markets on linkages, NBER Working Paper 12522, September 2006.

Aqeel, Anjum and Nishat Muhammad (2004), The determinants of foreign direct investment in Pakistan, The Pakistan Development Review, Volume 43 and No. 4.

Dickey, D. A. and W. A. Fuller (1979), Distribution of the Estimator for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, Volume 74, pp. 427-431.

Dickey, D. A. and W. A. Fuller (1979), Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Econometrica, pp. 1057-72.

Engle, R. F. and C. W. J. Granger (1987), Cointegration and Error correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing. Econometrica, Volume 55, pp. 251-276.

Government of Pakistan, Economic Survey of Pakistan (various issues). Finance Division, Islamabad.

Government of Pakistan, Statistical Bulletin (different issues). State Bank of Pakistan, Karachi.

Granger, C. W. J. (1981), Some properties of time series data and their use in Econometric Model Specification. Journal of Econometrics, Volume 16(1), pp. 121-130.

Granger, C. W. J. (1983), Cointegrated variables and Error Correction Models. UCSD, Discussion Paper.

Hussain, Ishrat (2003), Economy of Pakistan: Past, Present and Future Perspective. A paper presented at the Seminar on Pakistan Ideology held by the Pakistan Study Center, University of Karachi.

International Financial Statistics, IMF (International Monetary Fund), various issues.

Johansen, S. (1988), Statistical Analysis of Cointegrating Vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Volume 12, pp. 231-254.

Johansen, S. (1992), Determination of Cointegrating Rank in the Presence of a Linear Trend. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Volume 54, pp. 383-397.

Johansen, S. and K. Juselius (1990), Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration – with Application to the Demand for Money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Volume 52, pp. 170-209.

Johansen, S. and K. Juselius (1992), Testing Structural Hypotheses in a Multivariate Cointegration Analysis of the PPP and UIP for UK. Journal of Econometrics, Volume 53, pp. 211-44.

Khan, A. H. and Yun-Hwan Kim (1999), Foreign direct investment in Pakistan: policies, Issues and Operational Implications. EDRC Report Series No. 66.

Lemi, Adugna (2004), Foreign Direct Investment, Host country productivity and export: The case of US and Japanese multinational affiliates. Journal of Economic Development, Volume 29, No. 1.

Mortimore, M. (2000), Corporate Strategies for FDI in the Context of Latin America’s New Economic Model. World Development, Volume 28, No. 9, pp. 1611-26.

Pesaran, H. M. and B. Pesaran (1997), Working with Microfit 4.0: Interactive Econometric Analysis. Oxford University Press.

The World Bank (2003), World Development Indicators. Washington, DC: The World Bank.

W. E. Griffiths, R. Carter Hill and G. G. Judge (2001), Undergraduate Econometrics, 2nd edition. John Wiley and Sons, Inc.

World Bank (2002), World Development Indicators 2002, CD-ROM.

Statistics

Author(s):

MAHR MUHAMMAD YOUSAF

Graduate Student of Economics

University of Sargodha, Sargodha

Pakistan

Zakir Hussain

Professor/Chairman

Department of Economics, University of Sargodha, Sargodha

Pakistan

NISAR AHMAD

Assistant Professor

University of Sargodha, Sargodha

Pakistan

Details:

Type: Articles
Volume: 46
Issue: 1
Language: English
Id: 608a63a0458b1
Pages 37 - 56
Published June 30, 2008

Statistics

  • 665
  • 277
  • 390

Copyrights

The research published by Pakistan Economic and Social Review (PESR) is licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. It allows readers to Share_ copy and redistribute, Adapt_ remix and transform. PESR offers free full text downloading to its online contents to all readers. No subscription fee is required to read and download online articles.
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.